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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$9.4

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares172
Combined PnL-$8.26
Up4 traders
Total Value$55.86
Total Shares56
Combined PnL-$1.15
Down — 67%Up — 33%
SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$550

Value

$505

PnL

-$8.14

Record

52%

3555-3314 (6869)

Both legs:

Up$252.550¢+$259.75
Down$249.550¢-$267.89
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$506

Value

$495

PnL

-$6.4

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

Both legs:

Down$251.4950.2¢-$253.1
Up$247.550¢+$246.7
0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.94

Value

—

PnL

-$0.94

Record

52%

1439-1341 (2780)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Up

Invested

$27.52

Value

$29.61

PnL

+$2.08

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Up

Invested

$6.82

Value

$5

PnL

-$1.82

Record

50%

2527-2554 (5081)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$31.35

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.91

Record

63%

4195-2511 (6706)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.95

Value

—

PnL

-$1.95

Record

48%

2261-2474 (4735)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.43

Value

—

PnL

-$1.43

Record

44%

2183-2822 (5005)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

67%

3569-1770 (5339)

MayorMamdani<$100
Up

Invested

$5.75

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

2790-2541 (5331)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.06

Value

—

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

1401-2422 (3823)

BoneOhioCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

70%

1672-705 (2377)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2

Value

—

PnL

-$2

Record

47%

2283-2545 (4828)

ohioismCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.72

Value

—

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

2185-2435 (4620)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x36c98735...3473fb
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794707100

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.14
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.4
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.94
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $29.61

+$2.08
DV

dvasdkasodk

Up — $5

-$1.82
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $15

-$1.91
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.95

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.43
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.05

MayorMamdani

Up — $6.25

+$0.5
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