Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$591.64
-$0.29
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2Β’ | $505.07 | $493.57 | +$4 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50.2Β’ | $247.56 | $493.57 | +$250.6 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49Β’ | $242.7 | β | -$246.6 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 75.6Β’ | $30.3 | $40.06 | +$9.76 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $32.48 | $32.81 | +$0.33 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Downavg 63Β’ | $14.15 | $15 | +$0.85 | 47% 2185-2435 (4620) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.2Β’ | $9.8 | β | -$9.8 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94.6Β’ | $9.65 | $10.2 | +$0.55 | 50% 2527-2554 (5081) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 33Β’ | $1.98 | β | -$1.98 | 42% 1805-2456 (4261) |
Invested
$505.07
Value
$493.57
PnL
+$4
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.3
Value
$40.06
PnL
+$9.76
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Invested
$32.48
Value
$32.81
PnL
+$0.33
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.15
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.85
Record
47%
2185-2435 (4620)
Invested
$9.8
Value
β
PnL
-$9.8
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
Invested
$9.65
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$0.55
Record
50%
2527-2554 (5081)
Invested
$1.98
Value
β
PnL
-$1.98
Record
42%
1805-2456 (4261)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
soswald1
Down β $40.06
hoodquant
Down β $32.81

ohioism
Down β $15
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
Down β $10.2
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp β $0