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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$29.7
Combined PnL
-$512.64
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares532
Combined PnL-$514.45
Down2 traders
Total Value$29.7
Total Shares30
Combined PnL+$1.81
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.6 | — | -$504.6 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 93.7¢ | $23.14 | $24.7 | +$1.56 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $7.69 | — | -$7.69 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $2.16 | — | -$2.16 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$504.6
Value
—
PnL
-$504.6
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$23.14
Value
$24.7
PnL
+$1.56
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
SO
soswald1CTR<$100Invested
$7.69
Value
—
PnL
-$7.69
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
—
PnL
-$2.16
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xfeb6f205...2e3f1b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794702000