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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$585.65

Combined PnL

-$520.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares589
Combined PnL-$532.6
Up5 traders
Total Value$95.65
Total Shares96
Combined PnL+$12.21
Down — 50%Up — 50%
SO
soswald1CTR
Down

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$517.22

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$509.1

Value

$490

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$244.4249.9¢+$246.8
Down$248.6449.5¢-$246.93
UN
uninformedfloww<$100
Up

Invested

$33.06

Value

$40.92

PnL

+$7.86

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.73

PnL

+$0.36

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$13.65

Value

$16.53

PnL

+$2.88

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$9.78

Value

—

PnL

-$6.22

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$7.86

Value

—

PnL

-$7.86

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Up

Invested

$6.11

Value

$5

PnL

-$1.11

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.25

Value

—

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

ohioism<$100
Up

Invested

$1.25

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$2.22

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1383-2353 (3736)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x083e74d1...c636bd
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794700800

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$517.22
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.13
UN

uninformedfloww

Up — $40.92

+$7.86
HO

hoodquant

Up — $29.73

+$0.36
AS

asdaefef

Up — $16.53

+$2.88
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

CTR

Down — $0

-$6.22
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$7.86
DV

dvasdkasodk

Up — $5

-$1.11
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.25

ohioism

Up — $3.47

+$2.22
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