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DownDownUpUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$15.69
Combined PnL
-$504.53
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares550
Combined PnL-$503.12
Up2 traders
Total Value$15.69
Total Shares16
Combined PnL-$1.4
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.9¢ | $3.07 | — | -$3.07 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $12.3 | $10.64 | -$1.66 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $4.8 | $5.05 | +$0.25 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1383-2353 (3736) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$3.07
Value
—
PnL
-$3.07
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$12.3
Value
$10.64
PnL
-$1.66
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.25
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1383-2353 (3736)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x025af17a...83faf9
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794697800