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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 45%

Total Value

$35.05

Combined PnL

-$505.58

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares580
Combined PnL-$521.28
Down6 traders
Total Value$35.05
Total Shares35
Combined PnL+$15.7
Up — 45%Down — 55%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$508.61

Value

—

PnL

-$502.5

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.13

Record

67%

3450-1707 (5157)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.61

Value

—

PnL

-$6.61

Record

51%

3214-3142 (6356)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$2

Value

$10

PnL

+$8

Record

44%

2109-2719 (4828)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

2454-1338 (3792)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.75

Value

—

PnL

-$6.75

Record

47%

2202-2452 (4654)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$1.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.7

Record

63%

4066-2434 (6500)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$1.2

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.8

Record

52%

2715-2472 (5187)

SO
soswald1CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

52%

3445-3233 (6678)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2

PnL

+$0.02

Record

98%

3813-79 (3892)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

47%

2109-2347 (4456)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xdc210804...a81034
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794697200

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$502.5
AS

asdaefef

Down — $8.05

+$0.13
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$6.61

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $10

+$8
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $5

+$0.05
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Up — $0

-$6.75
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5

+$3.7

MayorMamdani

Down — $5

+$3.8
SO

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$3.6
HO

hoodquant

Down — $2

+$0.02
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