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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$737.54

Combined PnL

-$15.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$245.61
Total Shares246
Combined PnL+$76.1
Down8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares123
Combined PnL-$91.25
Up — 47%Down — 53%
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$514.73

Value

$491.93

PnL

+$1.21

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

Both legs:

Down$254.3150.2¢-$247.3
Up$245.1249.8¢+$248.51
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100
Up

Invested

$21.69

Value

$83.5

PnL

+$61.81

Record

42%

1711-2331 (4042)

BoneOhio<$100
Up

Invested

$64.98

Value

$62

PnL

-$2.98

Record

71%

1617-670 (2287)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$51.48

Value

$52

PnL

+$0.52

Record

98%

3813-79 (3892)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$17.42

Value

—

PnL

-$17.42

Record

47%

2202-2452 (4654)

SO
soswald1CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$16.85

Value

—

PnL

-$16.85

Record

52%

3445-3233 (6678)

PB
PBot-5<$100
Up

Invested

$12.22

Value

$17

PnL

+$4.78

Record

48%

1276-1362 (2638)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$19.5

Value

—

PnL

-$15.82

Record

63%

4066-2434 (6500)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6.13

Value

—

PnL

-$6.13

Record

67%

3450-1707 (5157)

cryingbabydicer87<$100
Up

Invested

$14.05

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$1.01

Record

49%

1554-1593 (3147)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$10.35

Value

—

PnL

-$10.35

Record

44%

2109-2719 (4828)

AS
asidjasiodjaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$7.14

Value

—

PnL

-$7.14

Record

65%

2454-1338 (3792)

BO
bosonaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.49

Value

—

PnL

-$4.49

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

AN
antsaslyku<$100
Up

Invested

$4.68

Value

$9

PnL

+$4.32

Record

37%

1368-2322 (3690)

ohioism<$100
Up

Invested

$0.42

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$6.64

Record

47%

2109-2347 (4456)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$13.05

Value

—

PnL

-$13.05

Record

50%

2442-2474 (4916)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x67a1ecd5...5e7643
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794694200

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.21
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $83.5

+$61.81

BoneOhio

Up — $62

-$2.98
HO

hoodquant

Up — $52

+$0.52
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Down — $0

-$17.42
SO

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$16.85
PB

PBot-5

Up — $17

+$4.78
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

CTR

Down — $0

-$15.82
AS

asdaefef

CTR

Down — $0

-$6.13

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $15.05

+$1.01
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