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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 33%

Total Value

$553.62

Combined PnL

-$527.84

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares553

Combined PnL-$537.85

Down6 traders

Total Value$553.62

Total Shares554

Combined PnL+$10.01

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$536.25	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.2¢	$503.65	$498.82	+$3.55	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$26.81	$30.34	+$3.53	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 88¢	$7.92	$9	+$1.08	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	50% 2427-2459 (4886)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 73¢	$4.5	$5.21	+$1.25	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 90.5¢	$4.75	$5.25	+$0.5	67% 3426-1692 (5118)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	37% 1362-2297 (3659)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$536.25

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Invested

$503.65

Value

$498.82

PnL

+$3.55

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$26.81

Value

$30.34

PnL

+$3.53

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$9

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

2427-2459 (4886)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.21

PnL

+$1.25

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.5

Record

67%

3426-1692 (5118)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb2d06286...9d056f

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794693600

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $498.82

MayorMamdani

Down — $30.34

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $9

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5.21

asdaefef

Down — $5.25

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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