Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
8
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$563
-$5.38
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 85.9Β’ | $33.86 | $36.87 | +$3.01 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 97Β’ | $12.61 | $13 | +$0.39 | 52% 2715-2472 (5187) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73.5Β’ | $13.75 | $8.13 | +$0.78 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 10Β’ | $2 | β | -$2 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.7Β’ | $3.85 | β | -$3.85 | 47% 2109-2347 (4456) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 44Β’ | $2.64 | β | -$2.64 | 42% 1711-2331 (4042) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 14Β’ | $1.12 | β | -$1.12 | 50% 2442-2474 (4916) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.86
Value
$36.87
PnL
+$3.01
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.61
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.39
Record
52%
2715-2472 (5187)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$8.13
PnL
+$0.78
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
β
PnL
-$2
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.85
Value
β
PnL
-$3.85
Record
47%
2109-2347 (4456)
Invested
$2.64
Value
β
PnL
-$2.64
Record
42%
1711-2331 (4042)
Invested
$1.12
Value
β
PnL
-$1.12
Record
50%
2442-2474 (4916)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
soswald1
Down β $36.87

MayorMamdani
Down β $13
drfc4eybh7i8
Down β $8.13

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0
asdaefef
Down β $5

ohioism
CTRUp β $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0