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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 44%

Total Value

$563.3

Combined PnL

-$507.12

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares568

Combined PnL-$538.12

Down5 traders

Total Value$563.3

Total Shares563

Combined PnL+$31

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$529.35	52% 3418-3216 (6634)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$507.15	$500	-$1.37	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$13.45	$25.45	+$12	52% 2695-2461 (5156)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$7.57	$10.54	+$2.97	63% 4035-2416 (6451)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 48¢	$8.31	$17.32	+$9.01	48% 1266-1353 (2619)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$4.27	—	-$4.27	50% 2427-2459 (4886)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 16¢	$1.6	$10	+$8.4	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$2.35	—	-$2.35	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$2.15	—	-$2.15	44% 2099-2693 (4792)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$529.35

Record

52%

3418-3216 (6634)

Invested

$507.15

Value

$500

PnL

-$1.37

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$13.45

Value

$25.45

PnL

+$12

Record

52%

2695-2461 (5156)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.57

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$2.97

Record

63%

4035-2416 (6451)

Invested

$8.31

Value

$17.32

PnL

+$9.01

Record

48%

1266-1353 (2619)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

—

PnL

-$4.27

Record

50%

2427-2459 (4886)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$8.4

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

—

PnL

-$2.35

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

—

PnL

-$2.15

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6feabcd2...f34549

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794691500

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $500

MayorMamdani

Down — $25.45

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10.54

PBot-5

Down — $17.32

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $10

ohioism

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

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