Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$593.01
-$141.88
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $528.84 | $499.8 | +$3.82 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $253.33 | — | -$248.72 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.5¢ | $242.35 | $499.8 | +$252.54 | |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $68 | — | -$68 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.5¢ | $50.71 | — | -$50.71 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $31.5 | — | -$31.5 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $10.07 | $21.27 | +$11.2 | 37% 1362-2297 (3659) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 39.5¢ | $12.95 | $20 | +$7.05 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $13.44 | $14 | +$0.56 | 52% 2695-2461 (5156) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 41.3¢ | $6.54 | $11 | +$4.46 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $7.91 | $16.82 | +$8.91 | 48% 1266-1353 (2619) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $8.62 | — | -$8.62 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $4.55 | $5.11 | +$0.56 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 65% 2432-1333 (3765) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.4¢ | $11.65 | — | -$11.65 | 48% 2150-2369 (4519) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $3.2 | — | -$3.2 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.05 | — | -$1.05 | 50% 2427-2459 (4886) |
Invested
$528.84
Value
$499.8
PnL
+$3.82
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$68
Value
—
PnL
-$68
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$50.71
Value
—
PnL
-$50.71
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Invested
$31.5
Value
—
PnL
-$31.5
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$10.07
Value
$21.27
PnL
+$11.2
Record
37%
1362-2297 (3659)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.05
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.44
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.56
Record
52%
2695-2461 (5156)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$6.54
Value
$11
PnL
+$4.46
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$16.82
PnL
+$8.91
Record
48%
1266-1353 (2619)
Invested
$8.62
Value
—
PnL
-$8.62
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.56
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
65%
2432-1333 (3765)
Invested
$11.65
Value
—
PnL
-$11.65
Record
48%
2150-2369 (4519)
Invested
$3.2
Value
—
PnL
-$3.2
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$1.05
Value
—
PnL
-$1.05
Record
50%
2427-2459 (4886)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
bosona
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
Down — $21.27
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $20
MayorMamdani
Down — $14
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $11
PBot-5
Down — $16.82
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0