Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Up 73%
2 arb excluded
$926.15
-$2.56
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $504.69 | $494.99 | -$1.79 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $251.6 | — | -$251.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $248.05 | $494.99 | +$249.81 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $135.52 | $168.47 | +$32.95 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $74.35 | $75.87 | +$3.32 | 52% 3418-3216 (6634) |
AN antsaslykuARB<$100 | Downavg 39.4¢ | $57.8 | $43.87 | -$13.93 | 37% 1362-2297 (3659) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.4¢ | $30.07 | — | -$30.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.2¢ | $27.73 | $43.87 | +$16.15 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $33.82 | $29.4 | +$3.48 | 51% 3203-3131 (6334) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $25.02 | $42 | +$16.98 | 48% 1266-1353 (2619) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $24.2 | $24.08 | -$0.12 | 50% 2427-2459 (4886) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $18.7 | $22 | +$3.3 | 52% 2695-2461 (5156) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $14 | $20 | +$6 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $6.56 | — | -$6.56 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $3.55 | $5.46 | +$1.91 | 63% 4035-2416 (6451) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $1.02 | — | -$1.02 | 67% 3426-1692 (5118) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.4¢ | $62.8 | — | -$62.8 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
Invested
$504.69
Value
$494.99
PnL
-$1.79
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$135.52
Value
$168.47
PnL
+$32.95
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
Invested
$74.35
Value
$75.87
PnL
+$3.32
Record
52%
3418-3216 (6634)
Invested
$57.8
Value
$43.87
PnL
-$13.93
Record
37%
1362-2297 (3659)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.82
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$3.48
Record
51%
3203-3131 (6334)
Invested
$25.02
Value
$42
PnL
+$16.98
Record
48%
1266-1353 (2619)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$24.08
PnL
-$0.12
Record
50%
2427-2459 (4886)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$18.7
Value
$22
PnL
+$3.3
Record
52%
2695-2461 (5156)
Invested
$14
Value
$20
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
Invested
$6.56
Value
—
PnL
-$6.56
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$5.46
PnL
+$1.91
Record
63%
4035-2416 (6451)
Invested
$1.02
Value
—
PnL
-$1.02
Record
67%
3426-1692 (5118)
Invested
$62.8
Value
—
PnL
-$62.8
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $168.47
soswald1
Up — $75.87
antsaslyku
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $29.4
PBot-5
Up — $42
dvasdkasodk
Up — $24.08
MayorMamdani
Up — $22
bosona
Up — $20
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0