Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 21% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Up 21%
$668.67
-$422.9
Smart Money Signal
3 of 14 top traders (21%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.6¢ | $506.14 | — | -$490.48 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $250.94 | $256 | +$5.06 | 98% 3730-79 (3809) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $61.01 | $76.87 | +$15.86 | 51% 4658-4490 (9148) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 76.1¢ | $51.8 | $55.86 | +$4.61 | 51% 3392-3202 (6594) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $51.18 | $63.94 | +$12.76 | 51% 1414-1359 (2773) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $46.56 | $59.72 | +$13.16 | 50% 2409-2440 (4849) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $41.6 | $46.07 | +$4.47 | 67% 3403-1682 (5085) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $33 | $50 | +$17 | 50% 1405-1380 (2785) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 94.2¢ | $23.55 | $25 | +$1.45 | 49% 1530-1579 (3109) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $14.48 | $19.21 | +$4.73 | 65% 2417-1324 (3741) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $13.05 | $10 | -$3.05 | 63% 4009-2399 (6408) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.1¢ | $10.86 | — | -$10.86 | 37% 1353-2279 (3632) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $2.16 | $6 | +$3.84 | 47% 2079-2312 (4391) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $1.46 | — | -$1.46 | 44% 2080-2676 (4756) |
Invested
$506.14
Value
—
PnL
-$490.48
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
Invested
$250.94
Value
$256
PnL
+$5.06
Record
98%
3730-79 (3809)
Invested
$61.01
Value
$76.87
PnL
+$15.86
Record
51%
4658-4490 (9148)
Invested
$51.8
Value
$55.86
PnL
+$4.61
Record
51%
3392-3202 (6594)
Invested
$51.18
Value
$63.94
PnL
+$12.76
Record
51%
1414-1359 (2773)
Invested
$46.56
Value
$59.72
PnL
+$13.16
Record
50%
2409-2440 (4849)
Invested
$41.6
Value
$46.07
PnL
+$4.47
Record
67%
3403-1682 (5085)
Invested
$33
Value
$50
PnL
+$17
Record
50%
1405-1380 (2785)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$23.55
Value
$25
PnL
+$1.45
Record
49%
1530-1579 (3109)
Invested
$14.48
Value
$19.21
PnL
+$4.73
Record
65%
2417-1324 (3741)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$10
PnL
-$3.05
Record
63%
4009-2399 (6408)
Invested
$10.86
Value
—
PnL
-$10.86
Record
37%
1353-2279 (3632)
ohioism<$100Invested
$2.16
Value
$6
PnL
+$3.84
Record
47%
2079-2312 (4391)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.46
Value
—
PnL
-$1.46
Record
44%
2080-2676 (4756)