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DownDownUpUpDown
MayorMamdani<$100UpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Down 43%
Total Value
$34.51
Combined PnL
$-1.0K
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,065
Combined PnL$-1.0K
Up4 traders
Total Value$34.51
Total Shares35
Combined PnL+$9.6
Down — 43%Up — 57%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$535.62 | 51% 3392-3202 (6594) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.9¢ | $504.5 | — | -$502.45 | 54% 3514-2992 (6506) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $10.9 | $20 | +$9.1 | 48% 1258-1344 (2602) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $10 | +$0.2 | 63% 4009-2399 (6408) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1353-2279 (3632) |
MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $3.23 | $3.51 | +$0.28 | 52% 2682-2447 (5129) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $0.98 | $1 | +$0.02 | 50% 2409-2440 (4849) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$535.62
Record
51%
3392-3202 (6594)
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$504.5
Value
—
PnL
-$502.45
Record
54%
3514-2992 (6506)
PB
PBot-5<$100Invested
$10.9
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.1
Record
48%
1258-1344 (2602)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.2
Record
63%
4009-2399 (6408)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1353-2279 (3632)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.23
Value
$3.51
PnL
+$0.28
Record
52%
2682-2447 (5129)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
2409-2440 (4849)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2e83f0a0...b5cf0e
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794687600