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DownDownUpUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 40%
Total Value
$30.86
Combined PnL
-$498.38
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares529
Combined PnL-$508.17
Up3 traders
Total Value$30.86
Total Shares31
Combined PnL+$9.79
Down — 40%Up — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.9¢ | $500.37 | — | -$500.37 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.3¢ | $7.8 | — | -$7.8 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 56.8¢ | $9 | $15.86 | +$6.86 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $7.5 | $10 | +$2.83 | 62% 3967-2385 (6352) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 67% 3366-1674 (5040) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500.37
Value
—
PnL
-$500.37
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$7.8
Value
—
PnL
-$7.8
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
SO
soswald1<$100Invested
$9
Value
$15.86
PnL
+$6.86
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.83
Record
62%
3967-2385 (6352)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
67%
3366-1674 (5040)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xdfca1a51...461dcf
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794685800