Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 40%
1 arb excluded
$717.17
-$124.12
Smart Money Signal
4 of 11 top traders (36%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $518.59 | $495.82 | +$11.01 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $244.33 | $495.82 | +$256.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $246.98 | — | -$245.3 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $144.06 | $147 | +$2.94 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 58.8¢ | $71.55 | — | -$71.55 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $56.8 | — | -$56.8 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $39.75 | $59.35 | +$21.4 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $15.6 | — | -$13.12 | 62% 3967-2385 (6352) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $5.15 | $5 | +$3.8 | 64% 2389-1316 (3705) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 44.5¢ | $4.45 | $10 | +$5.55 | 47% 2060-2289 (4349) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 37% 1347-2255 (3602) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 52% 2655-2432 (5087) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $5.46 | — | -$5.46 | 50% 2392-2413 (4805) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.28 | — | -$1.28 | 67% 3366-1674 (5040) |
Invested
$518.59
Value
$495.82
PnL
+$11.01
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.06
Value
$147
PnL
+$2.94
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$71.55
Value
—
PnL
-$71.55
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$56.8
Value
—
PnL
-$56.8
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$59.35
PnL
+$21.4
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$15.6
Value
—
PnL
-$13.12
Record
62%
3967-2385 (6352)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.8
Record
64%
2389-1316 (3705)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.45
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.55
Record
47%
2060-2289 (4349)
Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
37%
1347-2255 (3602)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
52%
2655-2432 (5087)
Invested
$5.46
Value
—
PnL
-$5.46
Record
50%
2392-2413 (4805)
Invested
$1.28
Value
—
PnL
-$1.28
Record
67%
3366-1674 (5040)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $147
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $59.35
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $5
ohioism
Down — $10
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
CTRUp — $0