Back to Markets
UpDownUpUpUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 20%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$621.41
Combined PnL
-$486.61
Smart Money Signal
Down
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares505
Combined PnL-$493.03
Up4 traders
Total Value$81.41
Total Shares81
Combined PnL+$6.42
Down — 20%Up — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $540 | +$10.33 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $270 | $540 | +$271 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $246.32 | — | -$260.67 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.7¢ | $500.93 | — | -$493.03 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 73.6¢ | $44.01 | $52.35 | +$8.34 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 90.5¢ | $11.2 | $10.05 | -$0.82 | 62% 3967-2385 (6352) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $11.2 | $10 | -$1.2 | 67% 3366-1674 (5040) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $8.91 | $9.01 | +$0.1 | 50% 2392-2413 (4805) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$540
PnL
+$10.33
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Both legs:
Up$27050¢+$271
Down$246.3250¢-$260.67
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$500.93
Value
—
PnL
-$493.03
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$44.01
Value
$52.35
PnL
+$8.34
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100Invested
$11.2
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.82
Record
62%
3967-2385 (6352)
AS
asdaefef<$100Invested
$11.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.2
Record
67%
3366-1674 (5040)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$8.91
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
2392-2413 (4805)
Chat
Market Info
Condition ID
0xd51554a4...a5e38b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794684300