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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$567.56

Combined PnL

-$491.51

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$492.48

Down5 traders

Total Value$65.01

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.97

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$502.55	+$1.9	51% 3344-3190 (6534)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$262.5	—	-$270.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$251.28	$502.55	+$272.1
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$490.7	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 96¢	$24	$25	+$1	98% 3678-79 (3757)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 98¢	$16.88	$16	-$0.88	50% 2392-2413 (4805)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 93¢	$9.3	$10	+$0.7	62% 3967-2385 (6352)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 99¢	$7.92	$8	+$0.08	67% 3366-1674 (5040)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 98.8¢	$5.94	$6.01	+$0.07	64% 2389-1316 (3705)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$0.48	—	-$0.48	52% 2655-2432 (5087)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	51% 3138-3071 (6209)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$502.55

PnL

+$1.9

Record

51%

3344-3190 (6534)

Both legs:

Up$262.550¢-$270.2

Down$251.2850¢+$272.1

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$490.7

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Invested

$24

Value

$25

PnL

+$1

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$16.88

Value

$16

PnL

-$0.88

Record

50%

2392-2413 (4805)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.7

Record

62%

3967-2385 (6352)

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8

PnL

+$0.08

Record

67%

3366-1674 (5040)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.07

Record

64%

2389-1316 (3705)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.48

Value

—

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

2655-2432 (5087)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

—

PnL

-$1.3

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf1bcc0e4...fb351b

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794683400

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $25

dvasdkasodk

Down — $16

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $10

asdaefef

Down — $8

asidjasiodja

Down — $6.01

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

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