Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Up 56%
$117.13
-$954.74
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $511.1 | — | -$484.21 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$522.16 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 20.7¢ | $24.38 | $85.13 | +$64.64 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $16.83 | $17 | +$0.17 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $15.61 | — | -$15.61 | 52% 2630-2425 (5055) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $6.2 | $10 | +$3.8 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $3.08 | — | -$3.08 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.2 | $5 | +$3.8 | 37% 1340-2240 (3580) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $2.09 | — | -$2.09 | 50% 2368-2397 (4765) |
Invested
$511.1
Value
—
PnL
-$484.21
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$522.16
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$24.38
Value
$85.13
PnL
+$64.64
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
Invested
$16.83
Value
$17
PnL
+$0.17
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$15.61
Value
—
PnL
-$15.61
Record
52%
2630-2425 (5055)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.8
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
Invested
$3.08
Value
—
PnL
-$3.08
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.8
Record
37%
1340-2240 (3580)
Invested
$2.09
Value
—
PnL
-$2.09
Record
50%
2368-2397 (4765)