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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

8

Up 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$11.01

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$47.65

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$5.99

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$17

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$550	+$1.78	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$275	$550	+$275
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$271.51	—	-$273.22
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$501.6	$490	-$5.1	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$249.13	—	-$250.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$245.3
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 98.2¢	$14.77	$15.04	+$0.27	50% 2368-2397 (4765)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$9.8	—	-$9.8	37% 1340-2240 (3580)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	64% 2369-1311 (3680)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 84.1¢	$9.25	$11	+$1.75	52% 2630-2425 (5055)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	98% 3651-75 (3726)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	67% 3341-1667 (5008)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 33¢	$1.85	$5.61	+$3.76	62% 3938-2372 (6310)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 17.2¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	50% 2231-2229 (4460)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$550

PnL

+$1.78

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

Both legs:

Up$27550¢+$275

Down$271.5150¢-$273.22

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$501.6

Value

$490

PnL

-$5.1

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Both legs:

Down$249.1349.3¢-$250.4

Up$24550¢+$245.3

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$14.77

Value

$15.04

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

2368-2397 (4765)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

—

PnL

-$9.8

Record

37%

1340-2240 (3580)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

64%

2369-1311 (3680)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$11

PnL

+$1.75

Record

52%

2630-2425 (5055)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

3341-1667 (5008)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$1.85

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$3.76

Record

62%

3938-2372 (6310)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

50%

2231-2229 (4460)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xee000d11...d64d39

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794680700

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Up — $15.04

antsaslyku

Down — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $6

MayorMamdani

Up — $11

hoodquant

Up — $5

asdaefef

Up — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5.61

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

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