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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$45.79

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders
Total Value$44.47
Total Shares44
Combined PnL+$7.89
Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares108
Combined PnL-$53.68
Down — 44%Up — 56%
SO
soswald1ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$550

Value

$511.99

PnL

-$9.73

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

Both legs:

Down$25650¢+$256.62
Up$267.550¢-$266.35
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Up

Invested

$510.67

Value

$490.87

PnL

-$12.79

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Both legs:

Up$258.6450.6¢-$256.77
Down$245.4450¢+$243.98
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100
Down

Invested

$28.14

Value

$28.27

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

2368-2397 (4765)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$21.88

Value

—

PnL

-$21.88

Record

50%

2231-2229 (4460)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$14.38

Value

—

PnL

-$14.38

Record

52%

2630-2425 (5055)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$9.98

Value

—

PnL

-$9.98

Record

37%

1340-2240 (3580)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$3.43

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$4.77

Record

62%

3938-2372 (6310)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

64%

2369-1311 (3680)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.56

Value

—

PnL

-$1.56

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.88

Value

—

PnL

-$5.88

Record

42%

1643-2244 (3887)

0X
0x50f7<$100
Down

Invested

$0.06

Value

$3

PnL

+$2.94

Record

52%

1374-1272 (2646)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x4bfa6604...03d851
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794679200

Traders in this Market

SO

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.73
BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$12.79
DV

dvasdkasodk

Down — $28.27

+$0.13
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$21.88

MayorMamdani

CTR

Up — $0

-$14.38
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$9.98
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $8.2

+$4.77
AS

asidjasiodja

Down — $5

+$0.05
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.56
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.88
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