Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
8
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$1.03
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50Β’ | $550 | $546.08 | +$2.34 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3Β’ | $506.62 | $499.68 | -$3.31 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50.3Β’ | $251.59 | $499.68 | +$246.69 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $8.91 | $9 | +$0.09 | 50% 2368-2397 (4765) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 77Β’ | $6.66 | $6 | -$0.66 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97Β’ | $5.88 | $6.06 | +$0.18 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 98Β’ | $5.88 | $6 | +$0.12 | 42% 1643-2244 (3887) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 64% 2369-1311 (3680) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 27Β’ | $1.35 | β | -$1.35 | 44% 2041-2641 (4682) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.2Β’ | $3.27 | β | -$1.8 | 62% 3938-2372 (6310) |
Invested
$550
Value
$546.08
PnL
+$2.34
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$506.62
Value
$499.68
PnL
-$3.31
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
2368-2397 (4765)
Invested
$6.66
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.66
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$0.18
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
42%
1643-2244 (3887)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
64%
2369-1311 (3680)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
β
PnL
-$1.35
Record
44%
2041-2641 (4682)
Invested
$3.27
Value
β
PnL
-$1.8
Record
62%
3938-2372 (6310)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
soswald1
Down β $546.08
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
dvasdkasodk
Down β $9
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down β $6
asdaefef
Down β $6.06
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down β $6
asidjasiodja
Down β $5

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp β $0