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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 30%

Total Value

$68.2

Combined PnL

-$495.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares530

Combined PnL-$511.94

Up7 traders

Total Value$68.2

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$16.63

Down — 30%Up — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$501.9	—	-$500.23	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 77.2¢	$20.18	$21.47	+$1.31	62% 3900-2350 (6250)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 98¢	$11.76	$12	+$0.24	50% 2339-2380 (4719)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 98.3¢	$5.94	$6.04	+$0.1	64% 2336-1304 (3640)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 7.8¢	$0.94	$12	+$11.06	42% 1619-2223 (3842)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$5.88	$6	+$0.12	67% 3307-1655 (4962)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 48¢	$3.09	$6	+$2.91	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 90.9¢	$9.41	—	-$9.41	52% 2593-2411 (5004)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 81¢	$3.8	$4.69	+$0.89	51% 3279-3161 (6440)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$2.29	—	-$2.29	50% 2222-2217 (4439)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$501.9

Value

—

PnL

-$500.23

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$20.18

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$1.31

Record

62%

3900-2350 (6250)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$11.76

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

2339-2380 (4719)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.1

Record

64%

2336-1304 (3640)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

$12

PnL

+$11.06

Record

42%

1619-2223 (3842)

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.12

Record

67%

3307-1655 (4962)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$6

PnL

+$2.91

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

—

PnL

-$9.41

Record

52%

2593-2411 (5004)

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.69

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

3279-3161 (6440)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$2.29

Value

—

PnL

-$2.29

Record

50%

2222-2217 (4439)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 10 top traders (30%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x80cc354e...dd175a

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794676800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $21.47

dvasdkasodk

Up — $12

asidjasiodja

Up — $6.04

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $12

asdaefef

Up — $6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $6

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

soswald1

Up — $4.69

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

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