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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$529.78

Combined PnL

-$22.82

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares74
Combined PnL-$30.11
Up4 traders
Total Value$32.31
Total Shares32
Combined PnL+$7.29
Down — 56%Up — 44%
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$504.1

Value

$497.47

PnL

-$2.99

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

Both legs:

Up$248.7450¢+$248.91
Down$249.1249.8¢-$251.9
SO
soswald1CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$24.26

Value

—

PnL

-$24.26

Record

51%

3279-3161 (6440)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100
Up

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11.31

PnL

+$0.42

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

MayorMamdani<$100
Up

Invested

$5.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.1

Record

52%

2593-2411 (5004)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.12

Record

62%

3900-2350 (6250)

PB
PBot-5<$100
Up

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

48%

1211-1300 (2511)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.68

Value

—

PnL

-$1.68

Record

42%

1619-2223 (3842)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1330-2218 (3548)

0X
0x50f7CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.02

Value

—

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

1357-1267 (2624)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.1

Value

—

PnL

-$4.1

Record

50%

2222-2217 (4439)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x2d5053ad...4cee60
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794676200

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.99
SO

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$24.26
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $11.31

+$0.42

MayorMamdani

Up — $10

+$4.1
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $6

+$0.12
PB

PBot-5

Up — $5

+$2.65
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

CTR

Down — $0

-$1.68
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.05
0X

0x50f7

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.02
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Down — $0

-$4.1
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