Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 44%
$295.94
-$462.67
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.9¢ | $514.38 | — | -$485.22 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.4¢ | $87.49 | $71 | -$16.49 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $55.55 | $61.07 | +$5.52 | 49% 1453-1538 (2991) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 40.5¢ | $32.44 | $70.38 | +$37.95 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 34.2¢ | $18.63 | $30.57 | +$11.94 | 49% 2315-2365 (4680) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $26.11 | $30.36 | +$4.25 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $24.51 | $14 | +$0.36 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $9.9 | — | -$9.9 | 48% 1194-1295 (2489) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 29.4¢ | $5.07 | $8.78 | +$3.71 | 64% 2317-1294 (3611) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.6¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 67% 3285-1642 (4927) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 71% 1551-630 (2181) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 93.2¢ | $7.92 | $8.5 | +$0.58 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 37% 1317-2199 (3516) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 47% 1998-2233 (4231) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $0.49 | $1.29 | +$0.8 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $0.82 | — | -$0.82 | 47% 2083-2336 (4419) |
Invested
$514.38
Value
—
PnL
-$485.22
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$87.49
Value
$71
PnL
-$16.49
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$55.55
Value
$61.07
PnL
+$5.52
Record
49%
1453-1538 (2991)
Invested
$32.44
Value
$70.38
PnL
+$37.95
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$18.63
Value
$30.57
PnL
+$11.94
Record
49%
2315-2365 (4680)
Invested
$26.11
Value
$30.36
PnL
+$4.25
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
Invested
$24.51
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.36
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$9.9
Value
—
PnL
-$9.9
Record
48%
1194-1295 (2489)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$8.78
PnL
+$3.71
Record
64%
2317-1294 (3611)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
67%
3285-1642 (4927)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
71%
1551-630 (2181)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$7.92
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$0.58
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
37%
1317-2199 (3516)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
47%
1998-2233 (4231)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$1.29
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Invested
$0.82
Value
—
PnL
-$0.82
Record
47%
2083-2336 (4419)