Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$666.11
-$65.74
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $511.68 | $500.01 | -$0.24 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $249.96 | $500.01 | +$249.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $249.75 | — | -$249.55 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $108.9 | $110 | +$1.1 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $65.58 | — | -$65.58 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $24.94 | $25.1 | +$3.37 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.5¢ | $10.27 | — | -$10.27 | 49% 2315-2365 (4680) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $13.2 | $10 | -$3.2 | 67% 3285-1642 (4927) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 64% 2317-1294 (3611) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $5.15 | — | -$5.15 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $4.41 | $21 | +$16.59 | 37% 1317-2199 (3516) |
Invested
$511.68
Value
$500.01
PnL
-$0.24
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.9
Value
$110
PnL
+$1.1
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$65.58
Value
—
PnL
-$65.58
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$24.94
Value
$25.1
PnL
+$3.37
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
Invested
$10.27
Value
—
PnL
-$10.27
Record
49%
2315-2365 (4680)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$3.2
Record
67%
3285-1642 (4927)
Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
64%
2317-1294 (3611)
Invested
$5.15
Value
—
PnL
-$5.15
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$21
PnL
+$16.59
Record
37%
1317-2199 (3516)