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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$66.24

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$99.07

Down4 traders

Total Value$105.56

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$32.83

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$507.54	-$21.75	51% 3258-3136 (6394)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$263.5	—	-$261.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$253.77	$507.54	+$239.96
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$506.52	$495	+$1.02	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$251.58	—	-$246.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	$495	+$248
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 33.6¢	$17.62	—	-$17.62	49% 2315-2365 (4680)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$28.2	—	-$20.71	63% 3881-2327 (6208)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$11.52	—	-$11.52	67% 3285-1642 (4927)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 65.3¢	$22.86	$35	+$12.14	43% 1993-2596 (4589)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$13.92	$27	+$13.08	52% 2568-2395 (4963)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 95¢	$30.4	$32	+$1.6	98% 3543-73 (3616)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$27.75	—	-$27.75	49% 1453-1538 (2991)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 75.8¢	$9.96	—	-$9.96	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$4.1	—	-$4.1	37% 1317-2199 (3516)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$7.41	—	-$7.41	42% 1609-2196 (3805)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 48¢	$5.55	$11.56	+$6.01	48% 1194-1295 (2489)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$507.54

PnL

-$21.75

Record

51%

3258-3136 (6394)

Both legs:

Up$263.550¢-$261.71

Down$253.7750¢+$239.96

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.52

Value

$495

PnL

+$1.02

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Both legs:

Up$251.5849.4¢-$246.98

Down$247.550¢+$248

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$17.62

Value

—

PnL

-$17.62

Record

49%

2315-2365 (4680)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

—

PnL

-$20.71

Record

63%

3881-2327 (6208)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

—

PnL

-$11.52

Record

67%

3285-1642 (4927)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$22.86

Value

$35

PnL

+$12.14

Record

43%

1993-2596 (4589)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$13.92

Value

$27

PnL

+$13.08

Record

52%

2568-2395 (4963)

Invested

$30.4

Value

$32

PnL

+$1.6

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

—

PnL

-$27.75

Record

49%

1453-1538 (2991)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

—

PnL

-$9.96

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

—

PnL

-$4.1

Record

37%

1317-2199 (3516)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

—

PnL

-$7.41

Record

42%

1609-2196 (3805)

Invested

$5.55

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$6.01

Record

48%

1194-1295 (2489)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x04a425a1...f72458

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794671100

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $35

MayorMamdani

Down — $27

hoodquant

Down — $32

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

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