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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 60%

Total Value

$190.22

Combined PnL

-$994.17

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,158

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up6 traders

Total Value$190.22

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$70.62

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$550	—	-$526.53	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$517.35	—	-$489.69	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 19¢	$10	$52.62	+$42.62	38% 1298-2160 (3458)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$56.67	$57.24	+$0.57	98% 3454-73 (3527)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 19.7¢	$11.57	$30	+$18.43	47% 1989-2244 (4233)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$12.15	—	-$12.15	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 99¢	$19.8	$20	+$0.2	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$20.34	$15.36	-$4.09	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 28.1¢	$10.74	—	-$10.74	44% 1957-2530 (4487)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 87¢	$4.35	—	-$4.35	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 67¢	$3.75	—	-$3.75	64% 2269-1266 (3535)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 14.1¢	$2.11	$15	+$12.89	47% 1969-2182 (4151)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 63¢	$3.15	—	-$3.15	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$1.95	—	-$1.95	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$12.48	—	-$12.48	49% 2260-2317 (4577)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$526.53

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$517.35

Value

—

PnL

-$489.69

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$52.62

PnL

+$42.62

Record

38%

1298-2160 (3458)

Invested

$56.67

Value

$57.24

PnL

+$0.57

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$11.57

Value

$30

PnL

+$18.43

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$12.15

Value

—

PnL

-$12.15

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$20.34

Value

$15.36

PnL

-$4.09

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

—

PnL

-$10.74

Record

44%

1957-2530 (4487)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

—

PnL

-$4.35

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

—

PnL

-$3.75

Record

64%

2269-1266 (3535)

Invested

$2.11

Value

$15

PnL

+$12.89

Record

47%

1969-2182 (4151)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

—

PnL

-$3.15

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.95

Value

—

PnL

-$1.95

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$12.48

Value

—

PnL

-$12.48

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4b359116...22ca2d

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794666900

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $52.62

hoodquant

Up — $57.24

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $30

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $20

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $15.36

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

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