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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$802.37

Combined PnL

-$108.63

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$307.37

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$30.96

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$139.59

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$514.77	$495	+$8.11	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$247.2	$495	+$251.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$245.51	—	-$243.69
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 90.8¢	$201.71	$222.06	+$20.34	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$97.75	—	-$97.68	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98¢	$41.36	$28	-$6.85	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$26.87	—	-$26.87	38% 1298-2160 (3458)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 85¢	$15.96	$12	-$3.96	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 24.8¢	$6.23	$20.2	+$13.97	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 55¢	$12.16	$15.35	+$3.19	49% 2260-2317 (4577)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$7.84	—	-$7.84	48% 1159-1269 (2428)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$5.5	$9.76	+$4.26	47% 2034-2298 (4332)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$7.2	—	-$7.2	44% 1957-2530 (4487)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.77

Value

$495

PnL

+$8.11

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Down$247.249.9¢+$251.8

Up$245.5148.3¢-$243.69

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$201.71

Value

$222.06

PnL

+$20.34

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$97.75

Value

—

PnL

-$97.68

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$41.36

Value

$28

PnL

-$6.85

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$26.87

Value

—

PnL

-$26.87

Record

38%

1298-2160 (3458)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$15.96

Value

$12

PnL

-$3.96

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$6.23

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$13.97

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$3.19

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

Invested

$7.84

Value

—

PnL

-$7.84

Record

48%

1159-1269 (2428)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$4.26

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

44%

1957-2530 (4487)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc3b945cc...ed8d0e

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794666300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $222.06

soswald1

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $28

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $12

uninformedfloww

Down — $20.2

dvasdkasodk

Down — $15.35

PBot-5

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $9.76

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