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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$601.87

Combined PnL

-$492.21

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares569

Combined PnL-$502.33

Up6 traders

Total Value$56.87

Total Shares57

Combined PnL+$10.13

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$545	+$15.26	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$272.5	$545	+$273.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$242.84	—	-$258.24
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.2¢	$509.3	—	-$487.2	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$13.86	$14	+$0.14	98% 3454-73 (3527)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84¢	$11.25	$5	-$1.4	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$9.69	$16.12	+$6.43	38% 1298-2160 (3458)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$3.6	—	-$3.6	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 85¢	$5.74	$6.75	+$1.01	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 65¢	$6.5	$10	+$3.5	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 91¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	47% 1989-2244 (4233)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$3.77	—	-$3.77	47% 2034-2298 (4332)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	44% 1957-2530 (4487)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$1.96	—	-$1.96	49% 2260-2317 (4577)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 11.1¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	67% 3226-1609 (4835)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$545

PnL

+$15.26

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

Both legs:

Up$272.550¢+$273.5

Down$242.8450¢-$258.24

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$509.3

Value

—

PnL

-$487.2

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Invested

$13.86

Value

$14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.69

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$6.43

Record

38%

1298-2160 (3458)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

—

PnL

-$3.6

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$5.74

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$1.01

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.5

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

—

PnL

-$3.77

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

44%

1957-2530 (4487)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

—

PnL

-$1.96

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa56e9a9e...5501c6

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794665100

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $14

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $5

antsaslyku

Up — $16.12

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Up — $6.75

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $10

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

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