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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$92.53

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$50.44

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$1.16

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$91.37

Down — 30%Up — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$550	$508.67	-$22.88	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$254.33	$508.67	+$248.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$270	—	-$271.7
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$505.7	$490	-$11.3	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$255.7	—	-$255.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$244.4
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91.1¢	$34.8	$34.37	-$0.43	49% 2260-2317 (4577)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$27	—	-$27	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$27	—	-$27	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$20.76	—	-$20.76	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 67¢	$12.06	—	-$12.06	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 98¢	$11.04	$8	-$3.04	52% 2516-2359 (4875)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$5.76	$8.07	+$2.31	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$2.15	—	-$2.15	47% 1969-2182 (4151)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$2.35	—	-$2.35	47% 1989-2244 (4233)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 1298-2160 (3458)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$508.67

PnL

-$22.88

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

Both legs:

Down$254.3350¢+$248.82

Up$27050¢-$271.7

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$505.7

Value

$490

PnL

-$11.3

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Up$255.750.1¢-$255.7

Down$24550¢+$244.4

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$34.8

Value

$34.37

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

2260-2317 (4577)

Invested

$27

Value

—

PnL

-$27

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

Invested

$27

Value

—

PnL

-$27

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$20.76

Value

—

PnL

-$20.76

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$12.06

Value

—

PnL

-$12.06

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$8

PnL

-$3.04

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$2.31

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

—

PnL

-$2.15

Record

47%

1969-2182 (4151)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

—

PnL

-$2.35

Record

47%

1989-2244 (4233)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1298-2160 (3458)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb5b492a2...d90deb

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794664200

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Down — $34.37

bosona

Up — $0

almach

Up — $0

mo-money

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $8

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $8.07

ohioism

Up — $0

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