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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$555.23

Combined PnL

-$534.52

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares557

Combined PnL-$533.07

Down4 traders

Total Value$60.23

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$1.45

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$550	—	-$528.35	51% 3170-3070 (6240)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$505.22	$495	+$0.63	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250.22	—	-$248.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	$495	+$249.25
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$38.76	$37.07	-$1.69	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98.5¢	$17.88	$13.15	+$0.13	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 79¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	67% 3205-1601 (4806)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	98% 3425-72 (3497)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 71¢	$3.55	—	-$3.55	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.12	—	-$1.12	64% 2251-1263 (3514)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1289-2149 (3438)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$528.35

Record

51%

3170-3070 (6240)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$505.22

Value

$495

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

Both legs:

Up$250.2250¢-$248.62

Down$247.550¢+$249.25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$38.76

Value

$37.07

PnL

-$1.69

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$17.88

Value

$13.15

PnL

+$0.13

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

67%

3205-1601 (4806)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

3425-72 (3497)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

—

PnL

-$3.55

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

—

PnL

-$1.12

Record

64%

2251-1263 (3514)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1289-2149 (3438)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd531502a...b2264c

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794662400

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $37.07

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $13.15

asdaefef

Down — $5

hoodquant

Down — $5

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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