Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
11
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$676.4
$8.78
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.7Β’ | $503.7 | $497.84 | -$4.48 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.7Β’ | $253.7 | β | -$253.7 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $248.92 | $497.84 | +$249.22 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99Β’ | $105.32 | $106.38 | +$1.06 | 98% 3400-72 (3472) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 73.4Β’ | $23.64 | $24.33 | +$0.69 | 51% 2975-2913 (5888) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 44Β’ | $11 | $25 | +$14 | 48% 1150-1249 (2399) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 87.1Β’ | $10.51 | $12.07 | +$1.56 | 63% 3794-2264 (6058) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 88Β’ | $11.85 | $10 | -$1.85 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17Β’ | $2.93 | β | -$2.93 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $0.76 | $0.77 | +$0.01 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 12Β’ | $0.51 | β | -$0.51 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 15Β’ | $0.42 | β | -$0.42 | 64% 2251-1263 (3514) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 20Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 67% 3205-1601 (4806) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 8Β’ | $1.84 | β | -$1.84 | 44% 1926-2494 (4420) |
Invested
$503.7
Value
$497.84
PnL
-$4.48
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.32
Value
$106.38
PnL
+$1.06
Record
98%
3400-72 (3472)
Invested
$23.64
Value
$24.33
PnL
+$0.69
Record
51%
2975-2913 (5888)
Invested
$11
Value
$25
PnL
+$14
Record
48%
1150-1249 (2399)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$12.07
PnL
+$1.56
Record
63%
3794-2264 (6058)
Invested
$11.85
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.85
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
Invested
$2.93
Value
β
PnL
-$2.93
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.01
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.51
Value
β
PnL
-$0.51
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
Invested
$0.42
Value
β
PnL
-$0.42
Record
64%
2251-1263 (3514)
Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
67%
3205-1601 (4806)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.84
Value
β
PnL
-$1.84
Record
44%
1926-2494 (4420)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $106.38
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up β $24.33
PBot-5
Up β $25
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $12.07
soswald1
Up β $10
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown β $0

BoneOhio
Up β $0.77

MayorMamdani
CTRDown β $0
asidjasiodja
CTRDown β $0