Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 45%

Total Value

$552.29

Combined PnL

-$494.44

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares623

Combined PnL-$517.1

Up6 traders

Total Value$552.29

Total Shares552

Combined PnL+$22.66

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$550	—	-$512.77	51% 3148-3049 (6197)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.9¢	$520.79	$498.96	-$1.4	54% 3248-2750 (5998)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$9.17	$18.18	+$9.01	37% 1281-2136 (3417)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$6	$15.25	+$9.25	47% 1960-2212 (4172)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 77¢	$6.85	$8.9	+$2.05	50% 2099-2099 (4198)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$3.15	$6	+$2.85	42% 1499-2108 (3607)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 82¢	$4.1	$5	+$0.9	52% 2488-2319 (4807)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$1.15	—	-$1.15	63% 3794-2264 (6058)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 24¢	$0.48	—	-$0.48	48% 1943-2144 (4087)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 2.5¢	$1.52	—	-$1.52	44% 1926-2494 (4420)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.19	—	-$1.19	49% 2245-2302 (4547)

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$512.77

Record

51%

3148-3049 (6197)

Invested

$520.79

Value

$498.96

PnL

-$1.4

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.17

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$9.01

Record

37%

1281-2136 (3417)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$6

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$9.25

Record

47%

1960-2212 (4172)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$6.85

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$2.05

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$6

PnL

+$2.85

Record

42%

1499-2108 (3607)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

52%

2488-2319 (4807)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

—

PnL

-$1.15

Record

63%

3794-2264 (6058)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.48

Value

—

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

1943-2144 (4087)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

—

PnL

-$1.52

Record

44%

1926-2494 (4420)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

—

PnL

-$1.19

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 11 top traders (45%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x48ac160d...8e29f2

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794659400

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $498.96

antsaslyku

Up — $18.18

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $15.25

uninformedfloww

Up — $8.9

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

MayorMamdani

Up — $5

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket