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DownUpUp
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Down
BoneOhio<$100UpUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$525.64
Combined PnL
-$521.67
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares550
Combined PnL-$533.2
Up3 traders
Total Value$29.55
Total Shares30
Combined PnL+$11.53
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$532.8 | 51% 3148-3049 (6197) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $513.66 | $496.09 | +$4.25 | 54% 3248-2750 (5998) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $248.16 | — | -$248.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $252.82 | $496.09 | +$252.76 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $13.5 | $25 | +$11.5 | 50% 2099-2099 (4198) |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.2¢ | $0.38 | — | -$0.38 | 52% 2488-2319 (4807) |
BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $2.57 | $2.6 | +$0.03 | 71% 1474-604 (2078) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $1.95 | $1.95 | +$0 | 51% 1306-1242 (2548) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.02 | — | -$0.02 | 37% 1281-2136 (3417) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$532.8
Record
51%
3148-3049 (6197)
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$513.66
Value
$496.09
PnL
+$4.25
Record
54%
3248-2750 (5998)
Both legs:
Down$248.1649.8¢-$248.51
Up$252.8251¢+$252.76
UN
uninformedfloww<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$11.5
Record
50%
2099-2099 (4198)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
—
PnL
-$0.38
Record
52%
2488-2319 (4807)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$2.57
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.03
Record
71%
1474-604 (2078)
0X
0x50f7<$100Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.95
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1306-1242 (2548)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
1281-2136 (3417)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0d03702f...8b1aea
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794657000