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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 13% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 13%

Total Value

$228.8

Combined PnL

-$478.65

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$488.96

Down7 traders

Total Value$228.8

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$10.31

Up — 13%Down — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.6¢	$500.65	—	-$488.96	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$94	$94.95	+$0.95	98% 3371-72 (3443)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 86¢	$25.8	$30	+$4.2	51% 3131-3018 (6149)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 98.8¢	$46.3	$46.85	+$0.55	71% 1465-598 (2063)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$17.23	$16	-$1.23	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 87¢	$21.75	$25	+$3.25	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 80¢	$8	$10	+$2	47% 1993-2245 (4238)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 90¢	$5.4	$6	+$0.6	41% 1475-2082 (3557)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500.65

Value

—

PnL

-$488.96

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Invested

$94

Value

$94.95

PnL

+$0.95

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

Invested

$25.8

Value

$30

PnL

+$4.2

Record

51%

3131-3018 (6149)

Invested

$46.3

Value

$46.85

PnL

+$0.55

Record

71%

1465-598 (2063)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$17.23

Value

$16

PnL

-$1.23

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$21.75

Value

$25

PnL

+$3.25

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8

Value

$10

PnL

+$2

Record

47%

1993-2245 (4238)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

41%

1475-2082 (3557)

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb8bcb7a2...d2dda0

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794654300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $94.95

soswald1

Down — $30

BoneOhio

Down — $46.85

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $16

uninformedfloww

Down — $25

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $10

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $6

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