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DownDownUp
BoneOhio<$100UpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$597.39
Combined PnL
-$505.4
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares550
Combined PnL-$529.54
Up2 traders
Total Value$107.39
Total Shares107
Combined PnL+$24.14
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$518.38 | 51% 3131-3018 (6149) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $514.26 | $490 | -$1.49 | 54% 3222-2710 (5932) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $245.29 | $490 | +$247.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $249.16 | — | -$249.29 | |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $71.5 | $94.88 | +$24.02 | 37% 1273-2122 (3395) |
BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $12.38 | $12.51 | +$0.13 | 71% 1465-598 (2063) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $7.09 | — | -$7.09 | 50% 2078-2073 (4151) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 36.4¢ | $4.07 | — | -$4.07 | 51% 2945-2881 (5826) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$518.38
Record
51%
3131-3018 (6149)
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$514.26
Value
$490
PnL
-$1.49
Record
54%
3222-2710 (5932)
Both legs:
Up$245.2950.1¢+$247.8
Down$249.1649¢-$249.29
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$71.5
Value
$94.88
PnL
+$24.02
Record
37%
1273-2122 (3395)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$12.38
Value
$12.51
PnL
+$0.13
Record
71%
1465-598 (2063)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$7.09
Value
—
PnL
-$7.09
Record
50%
2078-2073 (4151)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$4.07
Value
—
PnL
-$4.07
Record
51%
2945-2881 (5826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2c672ff0...9c8270
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794653700