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DownDownUpUp
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100DownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$519.09
Combined PnL
-$512.28
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares518
Combined PnL-$511.5
Up2 traders
Total Value$29.09
Total Shares29
Combined PnL-$0.79
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $510.26 | $490 | +$3.48 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.11 | — | -$245.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $243.24 | $490 | +$248.9 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$508.55 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $20.95 | $15.49 | -$5.46 | 38% 1272-2117 (3389) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $8.93 | $13.6 | +$4.67 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $2.87 | — | -$2.87 | 52% 2466-2274 (4740) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $0.08 | — | -$0.08 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$510.26
Value
$490
PnL
+$3.48
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Down$247.1150¢-$245.42
Up$243.2449.6¢+$248.9
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$508.55
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$20.95
Value
$15.49
PnL
-$5.46
Record
38%
1272-2117 (3389)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$8.93
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$4.67
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.87
Value
—
PnL
-$2.87
Record
52%
2466-2274 (4740)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
—
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x93cc8587...fc9ce6
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794651900