Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
6
Down 17%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$48.93
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.1Β’ | $553.1 | $545.1 | +$32.5 | 51% 3113-3000 (6113) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6Β’ | $522.46 | $495 | +$0.68 | 54% 3204-2681 (5885) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $247.4 | $495 | +$249.4 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.6Β’ | $250.18 | β | -$248.72 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 59Β’ | $13.04 | β | -$13.04 | 51% 2935-2874 (5809) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 51Β’ | $8.1 | β | -$8.1 | 44% 1903-2453 (4356) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 47Β’ | $2.35 | β | -$2.35 | 48% 1918-2109 (4027) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3Β’ | $0.14 | β | -$0.14 | 51% 1292-1224 (2516) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6Β’ | $57.8 | β | -$57.8 | 50% 2066-2059 (4125) |
Invested
$553.1
Value
$545.1
PnL
+$32.5
Record
51%
3113-3000 (6113)
Invested
$522.46
Value
$495
PnL
+$0.68
Record
54%
3204-2681 (5885)
Both legs:
Invested
$13.04
Value
β
PnL
-$13.04
Record
51%
2935-2874 (5809)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
β
PnL
-$8.1
Record
44%
1903-2453 (4356)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
β
PnL
-$2.35
Record
48%
1918-2109 (4027)
Invested
$0.14
Value
β
PnL
-$0.14
Record
51%
1292-1224 (2516)
Invested
$57.8
Value
β
PnL
-$57.8
Record
50%
2066-2059 (4125)