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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 36%

Total Value

$556.41

Combined PnL

-$451.49

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares744

Combined PnL-$607.34

Up7 traders

Total Value$556.41

Total Shares556

Combined PnL+$155.85

Down — 36%Up — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$521.54	—	-$493.54	54% 3204-2681 (5885)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 64.3¢	$258.24	$302.5	+$67.91	42% 1466-2059 (3525)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 77¢	$62.96	$57.92	-$5.04	51% 3113-3000 (6113)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$17.6	$39.8	+$22.2	38% 1272-2117 (3389)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 50.1¢	$116.6	—	-$112.5	50% 2066-2059 (4125)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 49¢	$24.5	$50	+$25.5	50% 1286-1280 (2566)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 49¢	$20.16	$41.14	+$20.98	49% 1276-1302 (2578)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$13.9	$15.05	+$1.15	48% 1372-1476 (2848)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 49¢	$26.86	$50	+$23.14	51% 4538-4402 (8940)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$0.5	—	-$0.5	52% 2466-2274 (4740)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$0.8	—	-$0.8	44% 1903-2453 (4356)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$521.54

Value

—

PnL

-$493.54

Record

54%

3204-2681 (5885)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$258.24

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$67.91

Record

42%

1466-2059 (3525)

Invested

$62.96

Value

$57.92

PnL

-$5.04

Record

51%

3113-3000 (6113)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$39.8

PnL

+$22.2

Record

38%

1272-2117 (3389)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$116.6

Value

—

PnL

-$112.5

Record

50%

2066-2059 (4125)

Invested

$24.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$25.5

Record

50%

1286-1280 (2566)

Invested

$20.16

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$20.98

Record

49%

1276-1302 (2578)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$13.9

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

1372-1476 (2848)

Invested

$26.86

Value

$50

PnL

+$23.14

Record

51%

4538-4402 (8940)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

—

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

2466-2274 (4740)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

—

PnL

-$0.8

Record

44%

1903-2453 (4356)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 11 top traders (36%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbfbdb1b8...d146e8

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794649800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $302.5

soswald1

Up — $57.92

antsaslyku

Up — $39.8

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

almach

Up — $50

mo-money

Up — $41.14

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $15.05

bosona

Up — $50

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

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