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UpDownDownUpUp Trade on Polymarket
Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
π
Won
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.0K
Combined PnL
-$4.25
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart dataβ¦
Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$516.01
Total Shares516
Combined PnL-$2.37
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares8
Combined PnL-$1.88
Down β 50%Up β 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $550 | $492.1 | -$16.4 | 51% 3061-2966 (6027) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $257.31 | β | -$268.65 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $246.05 | $492.1 | +$252.25 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.5Β’ | $514 | $494.94 | -$0.1 | 55% 3148-2619 (5767) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 71.5Β’ | $23.34 | $21.07 | -$2.27 | 51% 2884-2810 (5694) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 31Β’ | $1.86 | β | -$1.86 | 41% 1415-2011 (3426) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $0.02 | β | -$0.02 | 37% 1256-2094 (3350) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$492.1
PnL
-$16.4
Record
51%
3061-2966 (6027)
Both legs:
Up$257.3150Β’-$268.65
Down$246.0550Β’+$252.25
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$514
Value
$494.94
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
3148-2619 (5767)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$23.34
Value
$21.07
PnL
-$2.27
Record
51%
2884-2810 (5694)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
β
PnL
-$1.86
Record
41%
1415-2011 (3426)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
β
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
1256-2094 (3350)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x72ab539f...6721e8
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794642600