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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Down 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$10.46

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$589.15

Total Shares589

Combined PnL+$30.84

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$20.39

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$550	$545	+$19.95	51% 3061-2966 (6027)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$272.5	$545	+$273.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$240.28	—	-$253.6
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.4¢	$509.14	$499.01	+$4.39	55% 3148-2619 (5767)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$16.09	—	-$16.09	41% 1415-2011 (3426)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 70¢	$17.15	$24.5	+$7.35	49% 1252-1281 (2533)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$16.19	$19.56	+$3.37	51% 2884-2810 (5694)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 70¢	$11.49	$16.42	+$4.93	51% 4508-4382 (8890)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 70¢	$9.57	$13.67	+$4.1	50% 1264-1258 (2522)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$4.3	—	-$4.3	44% 1875-2425 (4300)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 86¢	$4.3	$5	+$0.7	52% 2431-2242 (4673)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.7	$6	+$3.3	47% 1910-2144 (4054)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.3	$5	+$2.7	48% 1893-2072 (3965)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$550

Value

$545

PnL

+$19.95

Record

51%

3061-2966 (6027)

Both legs:

Down$272.550¢+$273.55

Up$240.2850¢-$253.6

Invested

$509.14

Value

$499.01

PnL

+$4.39

Record

55%

3148-2619 (5767)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$16.09

Value

—

PnL

-$16.09

Record

41%

1415-2011 (3426)

Invested

$17.15

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$7.35

Record

49%

1252-1281 (2533)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$16.19

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$3.37

Record

51%

2884-2810 (5694)

Invested

$11.49

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$4.93

Record

51%

4508-4382 (8890)

Invested

$9.57

Value

$13.67

PnL

+$4.1

Record

50%

1264-1258 (2522)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

—

PnL

-$4.3

Record

44%

1875-2425 (4300)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

52%

2431-2242 (4673)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$6

PnL

+$3.3

Record

47%

1910-2144 (4054)

Invested

$2.3

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.7

Record

48%

1893-2072 (3965)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x17a7dd9a...259fd4

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794642000

Traders in this Market

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Down — $499.01

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

mo-money

Down — $24.5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $19.56

bosona

Down — $16.42

almach

Down — $13.67

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $6

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