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Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
Up 80%
2 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.2K
Combined PnL
$44.32
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up4 traders
Total Value$156
Total Shares156
Combined PnL+$45.76
Down1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares6
Combined PnL-$1.44
Up — 80%Down — 20%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | $540 | +$12 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $270 | $540 | +$270.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $243.38 | — | -$258.4 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$3.6 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $244.3 | — | -$246.4 | |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $35.5 | $50 | +$14.5 | 49% 1236-1272 (2508) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $35 | $50 | +$15 | 50% 1247-1249 (2496) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $35 | $50 | +$15 | 51% 4490-4374 (8864) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $4.74 | $6 | +$1.26 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
SO
soswald1ARB<$100Invested
$550
Value
$540
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
Both legs:
Up$27050¢+$270.4
Down$243.3850¢-$258.4
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.6
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
Up$25050¢+$250
Down$244.350¢-$246.4
MO
mo-money<$100Invested
$35.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$14.5
Record
49%
1236-1272 (2508)
AL
almach<$100Invested
$35
Value
$50
PnL
+$15
Record
50%
1247-1249 (2496)
BO
bosona<$100Invested
$35
Value
$50
PnL
+$15
Record
51%
4490-4374 (8864)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$4.74
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.26
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbff72994...16134c
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794641400