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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$586.89

Combined PnL

-$170.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders
Total Value$94.53
Total Shares95
Combined PnL+$40.01
Down9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares262
Combined PnL-$210.98
Up — 25%Down — 75%
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$521.5

Value

$492.36

PnL

-$2.95

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Down$254.8950¢-$249.36
Up$242.9549.3¢+$246.41
PB
PBot-5<$100
Up

Invested

$19

Value

$50

PnL

+$31

Record

48%

1110-1196 (2306)

MO
mo-moneyCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$35

Value

—

PnL

-$35

Record

49%

1236-1272 (2508)

SO
soswald1CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$62.93

Value

—

PnL

-$62.93

Record

51%

3032-2944 (5976)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$42.46

Value

—

PnL

-$42.46

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

AN
antsaslyku<$100
Up

Invested

$29.7

Value

$31.53

PnL

+$6.09

Record

37%

1244-2078 (3322)

BO
bosonaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$27.91

Value

—

PnL

-$27.91

Record

51%

4490-4374 (8864)

AL
almachCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$15.79

Value

—

PnL

-$15.79

Record

50%

1247-1249 (2496)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$12.65

Value

—

PnL

-$12.65

Record

52%

2416-2220 (4636)

BoneOhio<$100
Up

Invested

$10.08

Value

$13

PnL

+$2.92

Record

71%

1442-587 (2029)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

—

PnL

-$8.75

Record

41%

1393-1983 (3376)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$4.4

Value

—

PnL

-$4.4

Record

44%

1860-2404 (4264)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.09

Value

—

PnL

-$1.09

Record

47%

1939-2183 (4122)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x68659488...b9477b
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794640800

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$2.95
PB

PBot-5

Up — $50

+$31
MO

mo-money

CTR

Down — $0

-$35
SO

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$62.93
0X

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$42.46
AN

antsaslyku

Up — $31.53

+$6.09
BO

bosona

CTR

Down — $0

-$27.91
AL

almach

CTR

Down — $0

-$15.79

MayorMamdani

CTR

Down — $0

-$12.65

BoneOhio

Up — $13

+$2.92
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