Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 50%
$163.72
-$490.2
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.4¢ | $506.5 | — | -$491.9 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 71% 1442-587 (2029) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $34.65 | $35 | +$0.35 | 98% 3242-69 (3311) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $14.1 | $23.12 | +$9.02 | 37% 1244-2078 (3322) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.2¢ | $7.66 | — | -$7.66 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $4.59 | $5.6 | +$1.01 | 48% 1870-2057 (3927) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 22.2¢ | $3.55 | — | -$3.55 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 14.3¢ | $3.06 | — | +$1.53 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
Invested
$506.5
Value
—
PnL
-$491.9
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
BoneOhioInvested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
71%
1442-587 (2029)
Invested
$34.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$0.35
Record
98%
3242-69 (3311)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$23.12
PnL
+$9.02
Record
37%
1244-2078 (3322)
Invested
$7.66
Value
—
PnL
-$7.66
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.59
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$1.01
Record
48%
1870-2057 (3927)
Invested
$3.55
Value
—
PnL
-$3.55
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
Invested
$3.06
Value
—
PnL
+$1.53
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $100
hoodquant
Down — $35
antsaslyku
Down — $23.12
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $5.6
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0