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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$505.41
Combined PnL
-$551.3
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares565
Combined PnL-$552.34
Down1 trader
Total Value$2.91
Total Shares3
Combined PnL+$1.05
Up — 75%Down — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$547.45 | 51% 3032-2944 (5976) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $501.65 | $502.5 | +$2.33 | 55% 3113-2587 (5700) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $251.65 | $502.5 | +$250.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $248 | — | -$248.52 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6¢ | $2.91 | — | -$2.91 | 51% 2869-2774 (5643) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.2¢ | $1.99 | — | -$1.99 | 41% 1393-1983 (3376) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $1.86 | $2.91 | +$1.05 | 45% 2465-2964 (5429) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$547.45
Record
51%
3032-2944 (5976)
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$501.65
Value
$502.5
PnL
+$2.33
Record
55%
3113-2587 (5700)
Both legs:
Down$251.6550.1¢+$250.85
Up$24850¢-$248.52
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
—
PnL
-$2.91
Record
51%
2869-2774 (5643)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$1.99
Value
—
PnL
-$1.99
Record
41%
1393-1983 (3376)
SU
suntori<$100Invested
$1.86
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$1.05
Record
45%
2465-2964 (5429)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8358ab95...c807cc
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794640200