Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$679.99

Combined PnL

-$503.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$506.59

Up3 traders

Total Value$185.59

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$2.67

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$520.17	$494.4	-$9.79	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$249.81	$494.4	+$244.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$250.29	—	-$254.47
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$550	—	-$502.79	51% 3014-2926 (5940)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 96.7¢	$142.27	$147.1	+$4.83	98% 3197-68 (3265)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 71¢	$34.51	$31.35	-$3.16	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 86¢	$6.14	$7.14	+$1	49% 1227-1262 (2489)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	52% 2405-2202 (4607)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$1.25	—	-$1.25	47% 1885-2113 (3998)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$520.17

Value

$494.4

PnL

-$9.79

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

Both legs:

Up$249.8150.5¢+$244.68

Down$250.2949.8¢-$254.47

Invested

$550

Value

—

PnL

-$502.79

Record

51%

3014-2926 (5940)

Invested

$142.27

Value

$147.1

PnL

+$4.83

Record

98%

3197-68 (3265)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$34.51

Value

$31.35

PnL

-$3.16

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

Invested

$6.14

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$1

Record

49%

1227-1262 (2489)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

52%

2405-2202 (4607)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

—

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

1885-2113 (3998)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xdc878e01...1a52db

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794635700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $147.1

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $31.35

mo-money

Up — $7.14

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket