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DownUpUpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$550
Combined PnL
-$544
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares568
Combined PnL-$545.27
Up2 traders
Total Value$550
Total Shares550
Combined PnL+$1.27
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $550 | — | -$543.75 | 51% 3014-2926 (5940) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $509.03 | $500 | +$0.7 | 55% 3086-2563 (5649) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $49.43 | $50 | +$0.57 | 98% 3197-68 (3265) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.6¢ | $0.44 | — | -$0.44 | 51% 2841-2744 (5585) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 41% 1381-1964 (3345) |
SO
soswald1CTRInvested
$550
Value
—
PnL
-$543.75
Record
51%
3014-2926 (5940)
BY
ByteBadger92Invested
$509.03
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.7
Record
55%
3086-2563 (5649)
HO
hoodquant<$100Invested
$49.43
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.57
Record
98%
3197-68 (3265)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$0.44
Value
—
PnL
-$0.44
Record
51%
2841-2744 (5585)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
41%
1381-1964 (3345)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xeab61a96...0922e7
Slug
xrp-updown-5m-1794635100