Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
7
Up 29%
$82.46
-$483.34
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$490.1 | 55% 3061-2517 (5578) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.6¢ | $29.59 | $30 | +$0.41 | 98% 3154-65 (3219) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $27.44 | $32.46 | +$5.02 | 51% 2993-2903 (5896) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $10 | +$0.8 | 48% 1846-2015 (3861) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $4.65 | $5 | +$0.35 | 47% 1865-2092 (3957) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 41% 1354-1943 (3297) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.12 | 51% 2824-2718 (5542) |
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$490.1
Record
55%
3061-2517 (5578)
Invested
$29.59
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.41
Record
98%
3154-65 (3219)
Invested
$27.44
Value
$32.46
PnL
+$5.02
Record
51%
2993-2903 (5896)
ohioism<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
1846-2015 (3861)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.35
Record
47%
1865-2092 (3957)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
41%
1354-1943 (3297)
Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.12
Record
51%
2824-2718 (5542)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $30
soswald1
Down — $32.46
ohioism
Down — $10
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $5
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $5
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0