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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$629.78

Combined PnL

-$19.31

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$129.78

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$11.06

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$30.36

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$509.75	$500	+$3.82	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$248.92	$500	+$253.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.88	—	-$249.23
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98.9¢	$42.52	$43	+$0.48	98% 3131-65 (3196)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$30.15	$32.02	+$1.87	51% 2976-2895 (5871)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 96.7¢	$34.85	$29.7	-$5.15	63% 3717-2213 (5930)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 32.3¢	$6.45	$20	+$13.55	44% 1813-2341 (4154)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$5.7	—	-$5.7	47% 1892-2135 (4027)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$5.8	—	-$5.8	52% 2385-2166 (4551)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 94¢	$4.75	$5.05	+$0.3	48% 1324-1417 (2741)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 29.9¢	$3.92	—	-$3.92	64% 2208-1239 (3447)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 26.2¢	$3.12	—	-$3.12	67% 3145-1560 (4705)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$2.87	—	-$2.87	50% 2202-2243 (4445)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 38.2¢	$8.95	—	-$8.95	38% 1224-2020 (3244)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$509.75

Value

$500

PnL

+$3.82

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Up$248.9249.8¢+$253.05

Down$248.8850¢-$249.23

Invested

$42.52

Value

$43

PnL

+$0.48

Record

98%

3131-65 (3196)

Invested

$30.15

Value

$32.02

PnL

+$1.87

Record

51%

2976-2895 (5871)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$34.85

Value

$29.7

PnL

-$5.15

Record

63%

3717-2213 (5930)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$20

PnL

+$13.55

Record

44%

1813-2341 (4154)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

—

PnL

-$5.7

Record

47%

1892-2135 (4027)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

—

PnL

-$5.8

Record

52%

2385-2166 (4551)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

1324-1417 (2741)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

—

PnL

-$3.92

Record

64%

2208-1239 (3447)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

—

PnL

-$3.12

Record

67%

3145-1560 (4705)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

—

PnL

-$2.87

Record

50%

2202-2243 (4445)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$8.95

Value

—

PnL

-$8.95

Record

38%

1224-2020 (3244)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3a3b30dd...873548

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1794629100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $43

soswald1

Up — $32.02

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $29.7

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $20

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $5.05

asidjasiodja

Down — $0

asdaefef

Down — $0

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